9:03 pm, February 22, 2015
1,036
Awakening cost calculations, estimates on expected MWA usage
So now that we know the numbers for enchanting from +12 to +15, here are the statistics of how many MWA you will have to spend to actually get to +15.
The calculations assume a 20% success rate on enchanting. The awakening cost is not included.
The avarage cost of one fail from +12 to +15 is 186 MWA (based on the enchanting cost for weapons):
- 80% chance for the fail to be the first try (150 MWA cost)
- 16% chance for the fail to be the second (300 MWA cost)
- 4% chance for the fail to be the third try (450 MWA cost)
So 0.8*150 + 0.16*300 + 0.04*450 = 186 MWA is the avarage cost of failing to go from +12 to +15.
The chance to succeed from +12 to +15 in one go is 0.8% = 20% * 20% * 20%. So to have at least a X% chance of going from from +12 to +15 you need Y tries ( Y > log0.992(1-X)) as per the following table:
X (chance from +12 to +15) -> Y (number of tries)
50% -> 87 (~16200 MWA)
60% -> 115 (~21500 MWA)
70% -> 150 (~28000 MWA)
80% -> 201 (~37200 MWA)
90% -> 287 (~53400 MWA)
So, to have a 50% chance of getting +12 you need about 16200 MWA.
This table also means that one out of 10 players trying to get +15 will need more than 53k MWA to do it, but the same amount of players will need 2600 MWA or less, i.e., there is a 10% chance of getting +15 with 2600 MWA or less. However, half the players will need 16k or less. Yes, this is fundamentally broken, because the devs obviously don't know the exponential nature of statistics.
You can also use this to calculate your personal chance to get +15 depending on the number of MWA you can invest.
Take your number of MWA, divide by 186 to get your expected number of tries from +12 to +15. Now calculate "100 * (1 - 0.992 ^ <number of tries>)", which will give the percentage.
Considering the current sources of MWA in game it is highly unrealistic that even 1% of the playerbase will be able to ever get a +15 weapon. There are simply not enough MWA on any server.
To have 1% of the playerbase have +15, 2% of the playerbase will have to try and get it and spend on avarage ~16k MWA. This means that every player would have to provide on avarage 320 MWA to only those 2%. How the f*ck is that supposed to work?
Gameforge, do you guys have anyone actually fluent in math to work stuff like this out? Because in each and every case you do stuff with statistics you fail horribly!
EDIT: 320 MWA per player, not 640.
The calculations assume a 20% success rate on enchanting. The awakening cost is not included.
The avarage cost of one fail from +12 to +15 is 186 MWA (based on the enchanting cost for weapons):
- 80% chance for the fail to be the first try (150 MWA cost)
- 16% chance for the fail to be the second (300 MWA cost)
- 4% chance for the fail to be the third try (450 MWA cost)
So 0.8*150 + 0.16*300 + 0.04*450 = 186 MWA is the avarage cost of failing to go from +12 to +15.
The chance to succeed from +12 to +15 in one go is 0.8% = 20% * 20% * 20%. So to have at least a X% chance of going from from +12 to +15 you need Y tries ( Y > log0.992(1-X)) as per the following table:
X (chance from +12 to +15) -> Y (number of tries)
50% -> 87 (~16200 MWA)
60% -> 115 (~21500 MWA)
70% -> 150 (~28000 MWA)
80% -> 201 (~37200 MWA)
90% -> 287 (~53400 MWA)
So, to have a 50% chance of getting +12 you need about 16200 MWA.
This table also means that one out of 10 players trying to get +15 will need more than 53k MWA to do it, but the same amount of players will need 2600 MWA or less, i.e., there is a 10% chance of getting +15 with 2600 MWA or less. However, half the players will need 16k or less. Yes, this is fundamentally broken, because the devs obviously don't know the exponential nature of statistics.
You can also use this to calculate your personal chance to get +15 depending on the number of MWA you can invest.
Take your number of MWA, divide by 186 to get your expected number of tries from +12 to +15. Now calculate "100 * (1 - 0.992 ^ <number of tries>)", which will give the percentage.
Considering the current sources of MWA in game it is highly unrealistic that even 1% of the playerbase will be able to ever get a +15 weapon. There are simply not enough MWA on any server.
To have 1% of the playerbase have +15, 2% of the playerbase will have to try and get it and spend on avarage ~16k MWA. This means that every player would have to provide on avarage 320 MWA to only those 2%. How the f*ck is that supposed to work?
Gameforge, do you guys have anyone actually fluent in math to work stuff like this out? Because in each and every case you do stuff with statistics you fail horribly!
EDIT: 320 MWA per player, not 640.